NetherlandsversusNepal

19 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Nepal won by 6 wickets

Netherlands20.0 overs174/7 Nepal19.4 overs180/4 Titwood, Glasgow ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

53%Netherlands47%Nepal

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Netherlands won 6 and Nepal won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Netherlands (1,565 vs 1,557 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 51%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 1% to 62% during the match (Nepal: 38% to 99%).

Biggest swings

0.5: LN Rajbanshi to Vikramjit Singh, Vikramjit Singh out. Nepal up from 51% to 64%.
3.1: DS Airee to ZB Lion-Cachet, ZB Lion-Cachet out. Nepal up from 48% to 61%.
5.6: DS Airee to M Levitt, NRJ Croes out. Nepal up from 64% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands174/7 Nepal180/4

Innings 1

Netherlands

174/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Netherlands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Michael Levittcaught · Rohit Kumar · Karan KC 6 fours · 5 sixes	caught · Rohit Kumar · b Karan KC	86	53	6	5	162.26
Vikramjit Singhcaught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Lalit Rajbanshi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Lalit Rajbanshi	0	3	0	0	0.00
Zach Lion-Cachetcaught · Aasif Sheikh · Dipendra Singh Airee 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Dipendra Singh Airee	6	5	1	0	120.00
Scott Edwardscaught · Aasif Sheikh · Rupesh Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Rupesh Singh	2	4	0	0	50.00
Noah Croesrun out · Rohit Kumar · Dipendra Singh Airee1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	1	9.75	0
Karan KC0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	2	10.00	1
Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0
Rupesh Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	1	8.25	1
Sandeep Lamichhane0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	1	9.50	5

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	10	11/1
3	15	26/1
4	7	33/2
5	10	43/3
6	2	45/4
7	13	58/4
8	13	71/4
9	12	83/4
10	16	99/4
11	6	105/4
12	5	110/5
13	7	117/5
14	8	125/5
15	4	129/7
16	4	133/7
17	10	143/7
18	10	153/7
19	14	167/7
20	7	174/7

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