IrelandversusSri Lanka

23 Jun 2026 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 9 wickets

Ireland20.0 overs130/5 Sri Lanka15.3 overs134/1 County Ground, Bristol ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

51%Ireland49%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,623 vs 1,589 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 2 and Ireland won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 48%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 0% to 49% during the match (Sri Lanka: 51% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.4: M Ayodhya to GH Lewis, A Hunter out. Sri Lanka up from 52% to 63%.
1.5: BMSM Kumari to O Prendergast, O Prendergast out. Sri Lanka up from 64% to 73%.
4.1: M Ayodhya to R Stokell, R Stokell out. Sri Lanka up from 67% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland130/5 Sri Lanka134/1

Innings 1

Ireland

130/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
Amy Hunterrun out · Kaushini Nuthyangana · M Ayodhya 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Kaushini Nuthyangana	0	2	0	0.00
Gaby Lewisbowled · Chamari Atapattu 8 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Chamari Atapattu	59	50	8	118.00
Orla Prendergaststumped · Kaushini Nuthyangana · Sugandika Kumari 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Kaushini Nuthyangana · b Sugandika Kumari	0	6	0	0.00
Rebecca Stokellcaught · Kavisha Dilhari · M Ayodhya 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kavisha Dilhari · b M Ayodhya	13	12	3	108.33
Leah Paulcaught · Kaushini Nuthyangana · Nilakshi de Silva 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kaushini Nuthyangana · b Nilakshi de Silva	20	27	1

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
M Ayodhya1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	18	1	4.50	1
Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	1	6.50	2
NM Meepage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	0	6.50	0
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	21	0	7.00	0
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	23	1	7.67	0
Nilakshi de Silva0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	1	6.00	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	2	3/2
3	6	9/2
4	10	19/2
5	3	22/3
6	8	30/3
7	2	32/3
8	2	34/3
9	13	47/3
10	11	58/3
11	6	64/3
12	8	72/3
13	10	82/3
14	3	85/4
15	6	91/4
16	9	100/4
17	5	105/4
18	7	112/4
19	7	119/5
20	11	130/5

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