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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
25 Jul 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 68%; Netherlands batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C de Lange (2)caught · Jan Frylinck · JJ Smit 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jan Frylinck · b JJ Smit | 13 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 48.15 |
| Max O'Dowdcaught · Malan Kruger · Bernard Scholtz 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Malan Kruger · b Bernard Scholtz | 39 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 75.00 |
 Zach Lion-Cachetcaught · Jan Frylinck · Ruben Trumpelmann0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jan Frylinck · b Ruben Trumpelmann | 17 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 43.59 |
 Bas de Leedecaught · Gerhard Erasmus · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton5 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Gerhard Erasmus · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 97 | 92 | 5 | 3 | 105.43 |
Netherlands's chances ranged from 55% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 0% to 45%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Scott Edwardscaught · Zane Green · Gerhard Erasmus 2 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Zane Green · b Gerhard Erasmus |
| 40 |
| 60 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| Noah Croeslbw · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 18 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 90.00 |
|---|
| Logan van Beeknot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 18* | 9 | 1 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Roelof van der Merwenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Smit1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 4.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Ruben Trumpelmann0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 5.70 | 4 | 0 |
| Bernard Scholtz2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 2.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Brassell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 0 | 5.30 | 2 | 0 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 8.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-30 (C de Lange (2), 8.2) · 2-60 (Max O'Dowd, 17.2) · 3-72 (Zach Lion-Cachet, 22.1) · 4-156 (Scott Edwards, 38.5) · 5-195 (Noah Croes, 46.0) · 6-246 (Bas de Leede, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 8/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 14/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 17/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 27/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 30/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 30/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 35/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 38/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 41/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 43/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 45/1 |
| 15 | 8 | 53/1 |
| 16 | 2 | 55/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 60/1 |
| 18 | 0 | 60/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 63/2 |
| 20 | 1 | 64/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 67/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 72/2 |
| 23 | 3 | 75/3 |
| 24 | 5 | 80/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 85/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 90/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 94/3 |
| 28 | 13 | 107/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 112/3 |
| 30 | 0 | 112/3 |
| 31 | 7 | 119/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 122/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 127/3 |
| 34 | 7 | 134/3 |
| 35 | 6 | 140/3 |
| 36 | 11 | 151/3 |
| 37 | 3 | 154/3 |
| 38 | 1 | 155/3 |
| 39 | 3 | 158/4 |
| 40 | 1 | 159/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 164/4 |
| 42 | 2 | 166/4 |
| 43 | 10 | 176/4 |
| 44 | 8 | 184/4 |
| 45 | 5 | 189/4 |
| 46 | 6 | 195/5 |
| 47 | 9 | 204/5 |
| 48 | 8 | 212/5 |
| 49 | 23 | 235/5 |
| 50 | 16 | 251/6 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
