**Dubai International Cricket Stadium**
Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2026 · Women

IndiaversusBangladesh

10 Sept 2026 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 40 runs

India20.0 overs149/6 Bangladesh20.0 overs109/7 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

74%India26%Bangladesh

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and Bangladesh won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,686 vs 1,609 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 73%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

India's chances ranged from 68% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 32%).

Biggest swings

1.6: Sultana Khatun to S Mandhana, S Mandhana out. Bangladesh up from 24% to 32%.
3.4: Sultana Khatun to Shafali Verma, six by Shafali Verma. India up from 75% to 79%.
2nd inns 5.3: N Shree Charani to Juairiya Ferdous, Juairiya Ferdous out. India up from 86% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India149/6 Bangladesh109/7

Innings 1

India

149/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Smriti Mandhanacaught · Shorna Akter · Sultana Khatun 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shorna Akter · b Sultana Khatun	2	5	0	0	40.00
Shafali Vermacaught · Farjana Easmin · Sultana Khatun 7 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Farjana Easmin · b Sultana Khatun	64	40	7	3	160.00
Pratika Rawalcaught · Dilara Akter · Rabeya Khan 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Dilara Akter · b Rabeya Khan	20	24	1	1	83.33
Harmanpreet Kaurnot out 0 fours · 2 sixes	not out	24*	28

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Marufa Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	1	10.00	0
Sultana Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	30	2	10.00	0
Nahida Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	0
Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	1	5.50	1
Fahima Khatun0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	0	5.25	2
Shorna Akter0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	10	0	10.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	2	9/1
3	11	20/1
4	14	34/1
5	5	39/1
6	6	45/1
7	4	49/1
8	4	53/1
9	5	58/1
10	1	59/2
11	10	69/2
12	6	75/2
13	3	78/2
14	14	92/3
15	4	96/3
16	11	107/3
17	9	116/3
18	11	127/3
19	10	137/4
20	12	149/6

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