MiddlesexversusGloucestershire

11 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Middlesex won by 23 runs

Middlesex20.0 overs189/5 Gloucestershire20.0 overs166/7 Merchant Taylors' School Ground, Northwood ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Middlesex started on 37%; Middlesex batted first.

Middlesex’s chance of winning (%) · Gloucestershire is the rest

Middlesex's chances ranged from 32% to 100% during the match (Gloucestershire: 0% to 68%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.3: LBK Hollman to CT Bancroft, CT Bancroft out. Middlesex up from 44% to 56%.
2nd inns 7.4: LBK Hollman to OJ Price, OJ Price out. Middlesex up from 56% to 71%.
2nd inns 16.4: NB Cornwell to DJM Short, DJM Short out. Middlesex up from 66% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Middlesex189/5 Gloucestershire166/7

Innings 1

Middlesex

189/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Middlesex batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Stephen Eskinazicaught · Jack Taylor · Graeme van Buuren 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Jack Taylor · b Graeme van Buuren	20	12	2	1	166.67
Ben Geddescaught · Cameron Bancroft · Josh Shaw 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Cameron Bancroft · b Josh Shaw	25	19	2	2	131.58
Kane Williamsoncaught · Marchant de Lange · D'Arcy Short 6 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Marchant de Lange · b D'Arcy Short	52	30	6	2	173.33
Leus du Plooycaught · Ollie Price · Marchant de Lange 4 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Ollie Price · b Marchant de Lange	54	37	4	2	145.95

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
David Payne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	0	8.75	0	0
Josh Shaw0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	33	1	11.00	0	0
Graeme van Buuren0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	34	1	11.33	0	0
Ajeet Dale0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	22	0	11.00	0	0
Marchant de Lange0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	30	2	7.50	1	2
Ollie Price0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	19	0	9.50	0	0
D'Arcy Short0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	1	6.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	16	17/0
3	16	33/0
4	4	37/1
5	10	47/1
6	4	51/2
7	9	60/2
8	14	74/2
9	11	85/2
10	8	93/2
11	16	109/2
12	11	120/2
13	14	134/2
14	8	142/3
15	5	147/3
16	5	152/3
17	13	165/3
18	3	168/5
19	14	182/5
20	7	189/5

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MiddlesexversusGloucestershire

Middlesex won by 23 runs

How the win chances moved

Biggest swings

Middlesex

Fall of wickets