IrelandversusIndia

26 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Ireland won by 34 runs

Ireland20.0 overs182/9 India18.5 overs148/10 Civil Service Cricket Club, Stormont, Belfast ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

6%Ireland94%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Ireland (1,900 vs 1,515 on our results rating)
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and Ireland won 0
Ireland are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 5%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 2% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.2: MJ Humphreys to Tilak Varma, Tilak Varma out. Ireland up from 35% to 64%.
2nd inns 11.6: MK Hollard to Washington Sundar, Washington Sundar out. Ireland up from 56% to 84%.
2nd inns 15.6: J Moondra to S Dube, S Dube out. Ireland up from 65% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland182/9 India148/10

Innings 1

Ireland

182/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tim Tectorcaught · Shreyas Iyer · Harshit Rana 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Shreyas Iyer · b Harshit Rana	17	12	2	1	141.67
Ross Adaircaught · Sanju Samson · Harshit Rana 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sanju Samson · b Harshit Rana	12	7	2	0	171.43
Harry Tectorcaught · Sanju Samson · Arshdeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sanju Samson · b Arshdeep Singh	0	3	0	0	0.00
Lorcan Tuckercaught · Tilak Varma · Harshit Rana 5 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Tilak Varma · b Harshit Rana	50	36	5	2	138.89
Ben Calitzcaught · Prasidh Krishna · Shivam Dube 0 fours · 2 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	0	0
Harshit Rana0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	3	6.00	3	0
Prasidh Krishna0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	57	0	14.25	0	0
Shivam Dube0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	1	6.00	1	0
Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	2	8.25	0	0
Washington Sundar0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	19	0	19.00	1	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	10	20/1
3	5	25/2
4	5	30/3
5	3	33/3
6	3	36/3
7	15	51/3
8	6	57/4
9	8	65/4
10	3	68/4
11	10	78/4
12	8	86/4
13	16	102/4
14	9	111/4
15	7	118/5
16	19	137/5
17	27	164/5
18	4	168/6
19	10	178/7
20	4	182/9

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