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Bhutan Quadrangular T20I Series · 2024/25 · Men
24 Oct 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Bhutan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Indonesia started on 29%; Indonesia batted first.
Indonesia's chances ranged from 4% to 36% during the match (Bhutan: 64% to 96%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dharma Kesumabowled · D Dawa 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b D Dawa | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 180.00 |
| Ahmad Ramdoninot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 29* | 48 | 1 | 1 | 60.42 |
| Anjar Tadarusrun out · Namgay Thinley, Tshering Tashi · D Dawa 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Namgay Thinley, Tshering Tashi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Danilson Hawoecaught · Namgay Thinley · D Dawa 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Namgay Thinley · b D Dawa | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| J Dzulfikarcaught · Tshering Tashi · D Dawa 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tshering Tashi · b D Dawa | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
| bowled · b Ranjung Mikyo Dorji |
| 41 |
| 46 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 89.13 |
| Gede Artarun out · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji, Tshering Tashi · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji, Tshering Tashi | 10 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 76.92 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T Wangchuk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
| D Dawa0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 4.33 | 3 | 0 |
| Ranjung Mikyo Dorji0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
| J Singye1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Sonam Yeshey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Namgay Thinley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Thinley Jamtsho0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 2 | 2 |
| S Pradhan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 17.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (Dharma Kesuma, 1.1) · 2-10 (Anjar Tadarus, 1.3) · 3-12 (Danilson Hawoe, 1.5) · 4-24 (J Dzulfikar, 3.5) · 5-93 (Ketut Artawan, 17.1) · 6-105 (Gede Arta, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 12/3 |
| 3 | 7 | 19/3 |
| 4 | 6 | 25/4 |
| 5 | 1 | 26/4 |
| 6 | 4 | 30/4 |
| 7 | 1 | 31/4 |
| 8 | 2 | 33/4 |
| 9 | 0 | 33/4 |
| 10 | 1 | 34/4 |
| 11 | 4 | 38/4 |
| 12 | 5 | 43/4 |
| 13 | 9 | 52/4 |
| 14 | 1 | 53/4 |
| 15 | 17 | 70/4 |
| 16 | 13 | 83/4 |
| 17 | 10 | 93/4 |
| 18 | 1 | 94/5 |
| 19 | 5 | 99/5 |
| 20 | 6 | 105/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.