Rajasthan RoyalsversusGujarat Titans

4 Apr 2026 · T20

Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rajasthan Royals won by 6 runs

Rajasthan Royals20.0 overs210/6 Gujarat Titans20.0 overs204/8 Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rajasthan Royals started on 41%; Rajasthan Royals batted first.

Rajasthan Royals’s chance of winning (%) · Gujarat Titans is the rest

Rajasthan Royals's chances ranged from 10% to 88% during the match (Gujarat Titans: 12% to 90%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 14.3: Ravi Bishnoi to R Tewatia, R Tewatia out. Rajasthan Royals up from 41% to 69%.
2nd inns 14.5: Ravi Bishnoi to Rashid Khan, M Shahrukh Khan out. Rajasthan Royals up from 61% to 82%.
2nd inns 17.3: Sandeep Sharma to K Rabada, six by K Rabada. Gujarat Titans up from 55% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rajasthan Royals210/6 Gujarat Titans204/8

Innings 1