**Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium**
Photo: Wss ltd
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2024 · Women

Sri LankaversusMalaysia

22 Jul 2024 · T20

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 144 runs

Sri Lanka20.0 overs184/4 Malaysia19.5 overs40/10 Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

83%Sri Lanka17%Malaysia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Malaysia (1,647 vs 1,496 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 3 and Malaysia won 0
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 82%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Malaysia is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 77% to 100% during the match (Malaysia: 0% to 23%).

Biggest swings

1.1: Suabika Manivannan to RMVD Gunaratne, RMVD Gunaratne out. Malaysia up from 17% to 22%.
1.3: Suabika Manivannan to H Madavi, four by H Madavi. Sri Lanka up from 77% to 80%.
9.3: Mahirah Izzati Ismail to H Madavi, H Madavi out. Malaysia up from 10% to 13%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka184/4 Malaysia40/10

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

184/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Vishmi Gunaratnecaught · Elsa Hunter · Suabika Manivannan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Elsa Hunter · b Suabika Manivannan	1	4	0	0	25.00
Chamari Atapattunot out 14 fours · 7 sixes	not out	119*	69	14	7	172.46
Harshitha Madavibowled · Mahirah Ismail 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mahirah Ismail	26	23	5	0	113.04
Anushka Sanjeewanibowled · Winifred Duraisingam 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Winifred Duraisingam	31	24	4

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Winifred Duraisingam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	2	8.50	0	0
Suabika Manivannan0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	1	8.00	3	0
Ainna Hamizah Hashim0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	35	0	11.67	2	1
Aisya Eleesa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	45	0	11.25	0	0
Mahirah Ismail0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	1	5.75	1	0
Amalin Sorfina0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	15	0	15.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	4	9/1
3	4	13/1
4	7	20/1
5	7	27/1
6	14	41/1
7	9	50/1
8	6	56/1
9	9	65/1
10	6	71/2
11	14	85/2
12	6	91/2
13	15	106/2
14	5	111/2
15	5	116/2
16	12	128/2
17	6	134/2
18	19	153/2
19	20	173/2
20	11	184/4

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