Central DistrictsversusWellington

7 Jan 2026 · T20

Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Central Districts won by 5 runs

Central Districts20.0 overs154/6 Wellington20.0 overs149/5 Basin Reserve, Wellington ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 31%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Wellington is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 31% to 96% during the match (Wellington: 4% to 69%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.5: JB Ogden to EA Perry, EA Perry out. Central Districts up from 54% to 67%.
2nd inns 4.6: FDM Devonshire to JM Kerr, JM Kerr out. Central Districts up from 68% to 80%.
2nd inns 19.6: G Scrivens to JT McFadyen, 1 run to JT McFadyen. Central Districts up from 86% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts154/6 Wellington149/5

Innings 1