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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
14 May 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 23%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 0% to 34% during the match (Scotland: 66% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryansh Sharmacaught · Matty Cross · Brandon McMullen 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matty Cross · b Brandon McMullen | 11 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| T Suricaught · Matty Cross · Brad Currie 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matty Cross · b Brad Currie | 13 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 61.90 |
| Asif Khancaught · Finlay McCreath · Jack Jarvis 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Finlay McCreath · b Jack Jarvis | 17 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 47.22 |
| Rahul Chopracaught · Brad Currie · Brandon McMullen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brad Currie · b Brandon McMullen | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
 Alishan Sharafustumped · Matty Cross · Mark Watt1 fours · 0 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| stumped · Matty Cross · b Mark Watt |
| 11 |
| 25 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 44.00 |
| Waseem Muhammadbowled · Brandon McMullen 4 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Brandon McMullen | 61 | 75 | 4 | 3 | 81.33 |
|---|
| D Parasharrun out · Brandon McMullen · Safyaan Sharif 1 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Brandon McMullen | 16 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 88.89 |
|---|
| Aayan Afzal Khanrun out · Matty Cross, Safyaan Sharif · Safyaan Sharif 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Matty Cross, Safyaan Sharif | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| SS Kangcaught and bowled · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Brad Currie | 14 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 20.29 |
|---|
| Junaid Siddiquenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Muhammad Jawadullahcaught · Finlay McCreath · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Finlay McCreath · b Brad Currie | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Currie0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 0 | 34 | 3 | 3.46 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon McMullen2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 48 | 3 | 4.80 | 2 | 0 |
| Safyaan Sharif1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 2.78 | 2 | 0 |
| Jack Jarvis0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Mark Watt1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 2.40 | 1 | 0 |
1-29 (T Suri, 6.4) · 2-31 (Aryansh Sharma, 8.0) · 3-37 (Rahul Chopra, 9.5) · 4-60 (Asif Khan, 17.5) · 5-60 (Alishan Sharafu, 18.4) · 6-90 (D Parashar, 25.5) · 7-93 (Aayan Afzal Khan, 27.4) · 8-153 (Waseem Muhammad, 45.0) · 9-161 (SS Kang, 47.3) · 10-161 (Muhammad Jawadullah, 47.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 23/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 24/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 30/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 31/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 37/2 |
| 10 | 0 | 37/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 42/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 45/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 50/3 |
| 14 | 1 | 51/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 55/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 59/3 |
| 17 | 0 | 59/3 |
| 18 | 1 | 60/4 |
| 19 | 2 | 62/5 |
| 20 | 1 | 63/5 |
| 21 | 6 | 69/5 |
| 22 | 4 | 73/5 |
| 23 | 8 | 81/5 |
| 24 | 2 | 83/5 |
| 25 | 0 | 83/5 |
| 26 | 7 | 90/6 |
| 27 | 2 | 92/6 |
| 28 | 1 | 93/7 |
| 29 | 2 | 95/7 |
| 30 | 1 | 96/7 |
| 31 | 1 | 97/7 |
| 32 | 2 | 99/7 |
| 33 | 1 | 100/7 |
| 34 | 1 | 101/7 |
| 35 | 1 | 102/7 |
| 36 | 2 | 104/7 |
| 37 | 3 | 107/7 |
| 38 | 18 | 125/7 |
| 39 | 1 | 126/7 |
| 40 | 1 | 127/7 |
| 41 | 1 | 128/7 |
| 42 | 4 | 132/7 |
| 43 | 4 | 136/7 |
| 44 | 11 | 147/7 |
| 45 | 6 | 153/8 |
| 46 | 2 | 155/8 |
| 47 | 4 | 159/8 |
| 48 | 2 | 161/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
