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Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2023/24 · Men
7 Mar 2024 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 64%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Munseycaught · Pargat Singh · Harsh Thaker 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pargat Singh · b Harsh Thaker | 36 | 47 | 6 | 0 | 76.60 |
| Charlie Tearcaught · DS Bajwa · Harsh Thaker 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · DS Bajwa · b Harsh Thaker | 18 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Brandon McMullencaught · Saad Bin Zafar · Harsh Thaker 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Saad Bin Zafar · b Harsh Thaker | 33 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 113.79 |
| Richie Berringtoncaught · Srimantha Wijeratne · Dillon Heyliger 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Srimantha Wijeratne · b Dillon Heyliger | 30 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 65.22 |
| Matty Crossbowled · Ammar Khalid 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ammar Khalid | 17 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 54.84 |
Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 87% during the match (Canada: 13% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Michael Leaskbowled · Saad Bin Zafar 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| bowled · b Saad Bin Zafar |
| 2 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 28.57 |
 Mark Wattcaught · Nicholas Kirton · Saad Bin Zafar1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nicholas Kirton · b Saad Bin Zafar | 9 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 31.03 |
|---|
| Scott Curriestumped · Srimantha Wijeratne · Nicholas Kirton 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Srimantha Wijeratne · b Nicholas Kirton | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Safyaan Sharifbowled · Ammar Khalid 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ammar Khalid | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Brad Whealcaught · Harsh Thaker · Kaleem Sana2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harsh Thaker · b Kaleem Sana | 24 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 64.86 |
|---|
| Brad Currienot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 13 | 0 | 0 | 61.54 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ammar Khalid1 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 3.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Kaleem Sana1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.3 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 2.46 | 3 | 0 |
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 4.60 | 2 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 41 | 3 | 4.10 | 1 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | 4.89 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholas Kirton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-61 (George Munsey, 12.3) · 2-66 (Charlie Tear, 14.2) · 3-124 (Brandon McMullen, 24.0) · 4-140 (Richie Berrington, 28.5) · 5-147 (Michael Leask, 31.3) · 6-149 (Matty Cross, 34.2) · 7-154 (Scott Currie, 36.0) · 8-155 (Safyaan Sharif, 36.4) · 9-168 (Mark Watt, 40.5) · 10-197 (Brad Wheal, 47.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 22/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 25/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 30/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 40/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 41/0 |
| 9 | 8 | 49/0 |
| 10 | 7 | 56/0 |
| 11 | 2 | 58/0 |
| 12 | 3 | 61/0 |
| 13 | 1 | 62/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 66/1 |
| 15 | 0 | 66/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 67/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 72/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 75/2 |
| 19 | 9 | 84/2 |
| 20 | 12 | 96/2 |
| 21 | 7 | 103/2 |
| 22 | 10 | 113/2 |
| 23 | 7 | 120/2 |
| 24 | 4 | 124/3 |
| 25 | 1 | 125/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 130/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 134/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 139/3 |
| 29 | 1 | 140/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 143/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 146/4 |
| 32 | 1 | 147/5 |
| 33 | 1 | 148/5 |
| 34 | 1 | 149/5 |
| 35 | 1 | 150/6 |
| 36 | 4 | 154/7 |
| 37 | 1 | 155/8 |
| 38 | 5 | 160/8 |
| 39 | 2 | 162/8 |
| 40 | 1 | 163/8 |
| 41 | 5 | 168/9 |
| 42 | 1 | 169/9 |
| 43 | 3 | 172/9 |
| 44 | 8 | 180/9 |
| 45 | 5 | 185/9 |
| 46 | 7 | 192/9 |
| 47 | 5 | 197/9 |
| 48 | 0 | 197/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brad Wheal: Dave Morton · Public domain
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
