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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
12 Jun 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 34%; Canada batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YS Samracaught · Shubham Ranjane · Shehan Jayasuriya 7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shubham Ranjane · b Shehan Jayasuriya | 52 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 113.04 |
| Ali Nadeembowled · Ehsan Adil 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ehsan Adil | 14 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Pargat Singhcaught · Shayan Jahangir · Harmeet Singh 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shayan Jahangir · b Harmeet Singh | 25 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 60.98 |
| Matthew Spoorsstumped · Smit Patel · Milind Kumar 0 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Smit Patel · b Milind Kumar | 31 | 57 | 0 | 1 | 54.39 |
| Nicholas Kirtoncaught · Shubham Ranjane · Harmeet Singh 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shubham Ranjane · b Harmeet Singh | 53 | 68 | 3 | 1 | 77.94 |
Canada's chances ranged from 16% to 87% during the match (United States of America: 13% to 84%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Harsh Thakerrun out · Sanjay Krishnamurthi · Saurabh Netravalkar 1 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Sanjay Krishnamurthi | 47 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 117.50 |
|---|
| Akhil Kumarbowled · Saurabh Netravalkar 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 24 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 126.32 |
|---|
 Saad Bin Zafarcaught · Sanjay Krishnamurthi · Saurabh Netravalkar0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sanjay Krishnamurthi · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Shreyas Movvanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Kaleem Sananot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 7 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkar0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 61 | 2 | 6.10 | 1 | 1 |
| Ehsan Adil1 maidens · 4 wides · 2 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 47 | 1 | 5.88 | 4 | 2 |
 Shubham Ranjane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 16.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Milind Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 4.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Shehan Jayasuriya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 5.29 | 0 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 47 | 2 | 4.70 | 2 | 0 |
| Nosthush Kenjige0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-66 (Ali Nadeem, 8.5) · 2-87 (YS Samra, 14.2) · 3-121 (Pargat Singh, 24.0) · 4-150 (Matthew Spoors, 31.5) · 5-227 (Nicholas Kirton, 44.1) · 6-268 (Akhil Kumar, 49.1) · 7-268 (Saad Bin Zafar, 49.2) · 8-270 (Harsh Thaker, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 14/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 21/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 22/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 31/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 37/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 38/0 |
| 7 | 16 | 54/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 59/0 |
| 9 | 7 | 66/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 69/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 71/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 74/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 79/1 |
| 14 | 8 | 87/1 |
| 15 | 7 | 94/2 |
| 16 | 0 | 94/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 100/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 102/2 |
| 19 | 2 | 104/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 108/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 111/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 114/2 |
| 23 | 1 | 115/2 |
| 24 | 6 | 121/3 |
| 25 | 8 | 129/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 131/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 136/3 |
| 28 | 1 | 137/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 139/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 145/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 147/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 150/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 156/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 161/4 |
| 35 | 5 | 166/4 |
| 36 | 7 | 173/4 |
| 37 | 7 | 180/4 |
| 38 | 5 | 185/4 |
| 39 | 6 | 191/4 |
| 40 | 1 | 192/4 |
| 41 | 7 | 199/4 |
| 42 | 9 | 208/4 |
| 43 | 9 | 217/4 |
| 44 | 10 | 227/4 |
| 45 | 4 | 231/5 |
| 46 | 8 | 239/5 |
| 47 | 6 | 245/5 |
| 48 | 12 | 257/5 |
| 49 | 11 | 268/5 |
| 50 | 7 | 275/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
