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Photo: Krish Dulal
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Women's T20 World Cup Qualifier · 2025/26 · Women
28 Jan 2026 · T20
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 41%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 39% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 61%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcey Cartercaught · Louise Little · Alana Dalzell 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Louise Little · b Alana Dalzell | 11 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 68.75 |
| Katherine Fraserbowled · Jane Maguire 4 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Jane Maguire | 36 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 138.46 |
| Kathryn Brycecaught · Jane Maguire · LA McBride 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jane Maguire · b LA McBride | 30 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 130.43 |
| Sarah Brycecaught · Jane Maguire · Arlene Kelly 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jane Maguire · b Arlene Kelly | 47 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 151.61 |
| Ailsa Listerbowled · Jane Maguire 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jane Maguire | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
| not out |
| 27* |
| 15 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 180.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orla Prendergast0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Alana Dalzell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 14.67 | 1 | 0 |
| LA McBride0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Arlene Kelly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Aimee Maguire0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Jane Maguire0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-24 (Darcey Carter, 4.4) · 2-61 (Katherine Fraser, 8.2) · 3-85 (Kathryn Bryce, 12.0) · 4-111 (Ailsa Lister, 15.4) · 5-160 (Sarah Bryce, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 10 | 29/1 |
| 6 | 12 | 41/1 |
| 7 | 11 | 52/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 60/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 63/2 |
| 10 | 11 | 74/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 81/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 85/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 90/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 97/3 |
| 15 | 13 | 110/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 112/4 |
| 17 | 9 | 121/4 |
| 18 | 8 | 129/4 |
| 19 | 21 | 150/4 |
| 20 | 10 | 160/5 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.