FinlandversusNorway

15 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Finland won by 22 runs

Finland20.0 overs168/8 Norway19.4 overs146/10 Ishoj Cricket Club, Vejledalen ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Norway more likely to win

27%Finland73%Norway

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Norway rate stronger than Finland (1,521 vs 1,410 on our results rating)
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Norway won 4 and Finland won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Finland started on 27%; Finland batted first.

Finland’s chance of winning (%) · Norway is the rest

Finland's chances ranged from 8% to 100% during the match (Norway: 0% to 92%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.4: Amjad Sher to Vishal Sharma, Vishal Sharma out. Finland up from 38% to 51%.
2nd inns 11.2: Ghulam Abbas Butt to A Gupta, A Gupta out. Finland up from 66% to 78%.
2nd inns 12.2: Raaz Mohammad to Ibrahim Rahimi, Ibrahim Rahimi out. Finland up from 73% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Finland168/8 Norway146/10

Innings 1

Finland

168/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Finland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
VS Padhaalcaught · Khizer Ahmed · Qamar Mushtaque 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Khizer Ahmed · b Qamar Mushtaque	13	16	2	81.25
Atif Rasheedcaught · Vishal Sharma (2) · Qamar Mushtaque 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Vishal Sharma (2) · b Qamar Mushtaque	12	18	2	66.67
Ghulam Abbas Buttcaught · Junaid Mehmood · AJ Parmar 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Junaid Mehmood · b AJ Parmar	6	13	1	46.15
AK Mohancaught · Khizer Ahmed · Vishal Sharma (2) 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Khizer Ahmed · b Vishal Sharma (2)	18	20	2	90.00
Faraaz Mehti Abbasbowled · AJ Parmar 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b AJ Parmar	5	5	0	100.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Ahmadullah Shinwari0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	36	1	9.00	2	0
Vinay Ravi1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	15	1	5.00	0	0
Qamar Mushtaque0 maidens · 3 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	0	43	2	10.75	3	2
Ankit Gupta0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	0	13	0	6.50	2	1
AJ Parmar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	3	4.75	3	0
Ibrahim Rahimi0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	6	0	6.00	3	0
Vishal Sharma (2)0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	28	1	14.00	4	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	2	10/0
3	6	16/0
4	5	21/0
5	8	29/0
6	4	33/2
7	9	42/2
8	1	43/2
9	8	51/2
10	9	60/3
11	6	66/3
12	2	68/5
13	7	75/6
14	7	82/6
15	21	103/6
16	4	107/6
17	14	121/7
18	9	130/7
19	10	140/8
20	28	168/8

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