IrelandversusNamibia

1 Nov 2026 · ODI

Recorded result

Namibia won by 5 wickets

Ireland33.1 overs129/10 Namibia21.2 overs131/5 High Performance Oval, Windhoek ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Namibia more likely to win

44%Ireland56%Namibia

Why

Namibia are playing at home in Namibia
On results in ODIs so far, Ireland rate stronger than Namibia (1,453 vs 1,421 on our results rating)

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 42%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Namibia is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 0% to 46% during the match (Namibia: 55% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: R Trumpelmann to TH Tector, TH Tector out. Namibia up from 54% to 71%.
18.2: JT Brassell to C Carmichael, C Carmichael out. Namibia up from 68% to 77%.
22.2: JJ Smit to C Campher, C Campher out. Namibia up from 77% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland129/10 Namibia131/5

Innings 1

Ireland

129/1033.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tim Tectorcaught · M Heingo · Ruben Trumpelmann 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Heingo · b Ruben Trumpelmann	5	9	1	0	55.56
Andrew Balbirniecaught · Zane Green · M Heingo 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Zane Green · b M Heingo	9	24	0	0	37.50
Cade Carmichaelbowled · Jack Brassell 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Jack Brassell	27	57	2	0	47.37
Harry Tectorcaught · Jan Frylinck · WP Myburgh 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jan Frylinck · b WP Myburgh	21	35	2	0	60.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
JJ Smit3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	9.0	3	20	4	2.22	0
Ruben Trumpelmann0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	8.0	0	47	1	5.88	3
Jack Brassell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	6.1	0	15	3	2.43	0
M Heingo0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	1	5.75	1
WP Myburgh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	6.0	0	24	1	4.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	8	9/1
3	2	11/1
4	4	15/1
5	0	15/1
6	1	16/1
7	2	18/1
8	1	19/1
9	2	21/1
10	4	25/1
11	4	29/1
12	3	32/2
13	1	33/2
14	3	36/2
15	1	37/2
16	9	46/2
17	3	49/2
18	8	57/2
19	4	61/3
20	9	70/3
21	7	77/3
22	7	84/3
23	0	84/6
24	6	90/6
25	6	96/6
26	2	98/7
27	7	105/7
28	1	106/7
29	16	122/7
30	4	126/7
31	2	128/8
32	1	129/8
33	0	129/9
34	0	129/10

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