Melbourne RenegadesversusBrisbane Heat

15 Dec 2025 · T20

Kardinia Park, South Geelong, Victoria · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Renegades won by 14 runs

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs212/5 Brisbane Heat20.0 overs198/8 Kardinia Park, South Geelong, Victoria ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 43%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Brisbane Heat is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 39% to 100% during the match (Brisbane Heat: 0% to 61%).

Biggest swings

3.3: XC Bartlett to J Brown, J Brown out. Brisbane Heat up from 45% to 55%.
6.4: PG Dooley to Mohammad Rizwan, Mohammad Rizwan out. Brisbane Heat up from 52% to 60%.
9.3: JD Wildermuth to J Fraser-McGurk, J Fraser-McGurk out. Brisbane Heat up from 42% to 50%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Melbourne Renegades212/5 Brisbane Heat198/8

Innings 1