GloucestershireversusWorcestershire

7 Jun 2026 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Gloucestershire won by 3 runs

Gloucestershire20.0 overs148/8 Worcestershire20.0 overs145/10 County Ground, Bristol ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 51%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Worcestershire is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 21% to 92% during the match (Worcestershire: 9% to 79%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 14.3: M de Lange to MJ Waite, MJ Waite out. Gloucestershire up from 43% to 73%.
2nd inns 19.1: MD Taylor to GH Roderick, GH Roderick out. Gloucestershire up from 43% to 73%.
2nd inns 19.6: MD Taylor to AW Finch, AW Finch out. Gloucestershire up from 71% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire148/8 Worcestershire145/10

Innings 1