PakistanversusSri Lanka

28 Feb 2026 · T20

Pallekele International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 5 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs212/8 Sri Lanka20.0 overs207/6 Pallekele International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

68%Pakistan32%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,744 vs 1,558 on our results rating)
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 6 and Pakistan won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 66%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 65% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 1% to 35%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 19.4: Shaheen Shah Afridi to MD Shanaka, six by MD Shanaka. Sri Lanka up from 8% to 32%.
2nd inns 19.5: Shaheen Shah Afridi to MD Shanaka, 0 runs to MD Shanaka. Pakistan up from 68% to 82%.
2nd inns 19.6: Shaheen Shah Afridi to MD Shanaka, 0 runs to MD Shanaka. Pakistan up from 82% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan212/8 Sri Lanka207/6

Innings 1

Pakistan

212/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sahibzada Farhancaught · Janith Liyanage · Dilshan Madushanka 9 fours · 5 sixes	caught · Janith Liyanage · b Dilshan Madushanka	100	60	9	5	166.67
Fakhar Zamanbowled · Dushmantha Chameera 9 fours · 4 sixes	bowled · b Dushmantha Chameera	84	42	9	4	200.00
Khawaja Nafaycaught · Charith Asalanka · Dilshan Madushanka 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Charith Asalanka · b Dilshan Madushanka	2	3	0	0	66.67
Shadab Khanrun out · Kamil Mishara, Dilshan Madushanka · Dushmantha Chameera 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Kamil Mishara, Dilshan Madushanka	7	5	1	0	140.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Dilshan Madushanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	3	8.25	0
Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	48	1	12.00	1
Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	0	8.75	0
Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	42	2	10.50	0
Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	37	0	12.33	2
Janith Liyanage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	14	0	14.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	9	16/0
3	10	26/0
4	12	38/0
5	13	51/0
6	13	64/0
7	7	71/0
8	7	78/0
9	12	90/0
10	12	102/0
11	5	107/0
12	18	125/0
13	11	136/0
14	14	150/0
15	13	163/0
16	14	177/1
17	7	184/2
18	14	198/3
19	5	203/5
20	9	212/8

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