FinlandversusEstonia

26 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Estonia won by 4 wickets

Finland15.5 overs85/10 Estonia17.0 overs86/6 Estonian National Cricket and Rugby Field, Tallinn ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Estonia more likely to win

44%Finland56%Estonia

Why

Estonia are playing at home in Estonia
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Estonia won 1 and Finland won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Finland rate stronger than Estonia (1,443 vs 1,412 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Finland started on 42%; Finland batted first.

Finland’s chance of winning (%) · Estonia is the rest

Finland's chances ranged from 0% to 43% during the match (Estonia: 57% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.5: P Gheewala to L Ruane, L Ruane out. Estonia up from 61% to 71%.
2.1: S Gooch to Ghulam Abbas Butt, Ghulam Abbas Butt out. Estonia up from 65% to 74%.
5.6: Habib Khan to AK Mohan, AK Mohan out. Estonia up from 80% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Finland85/10 Estonia86/6

Innings 1

Finland

85/1015.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Finland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Ghulam Abbas Buttlbw · S Gooch 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b S Gooch	3	7	0	0	42.86
L Ruanecaught · Arslan Amjad · P Gheewala 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Arslan Amjad · b P Gheewala	1	5	0	0	20.00
Amjad Shercaught · Bilal Masud · S Gooch 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Bilal Masud · b S Gooch	6	2	0	1	300.00
AK Mohanlbw · Habib Khan 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Habib Khan	9	13	1	0	69.23
Faraaz Mehti Abbascaught · Habib Khan · R Baruah 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Habib Khan · b R Baruah	10	15	0	0	66.67
Akhil Arjunan

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
S Gooch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	2	6.33	0
P Gheewala0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	1	6.50	1
Zeeshan Ali (3)0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	0	5.00	5
Habib Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	12	2	6.00	0
R Baruah0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	13	3	4.33	3
Muhammad Usman (4)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	17	1	4.43	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	10	11/1
3	3	14/3
4	3	17/3
5	6	23/3
6	6	29/4
7	4	33/4
8	6	39/5
9	4	43/6
10	3	46/6
11	6	52/7
12	2	54/7
13	15	69/7
14	4	73/7
15	4	77/8
16	8	85/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.