Central DistrictsversusOtago

19 Jan 2024 · T20

University Oval, Dunedin · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Otago won by 6 wickets

Central Districts20.0 overs107/7 Otago16.3 overs111/4 University Oval, Dunedin ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 37%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 0% to 44% during the match (Otago: 56% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: EJ Black to HJ Armitage, four by HJ Armitage. Central Districts up from 37% to 44%.
1.3: LCN Smith to HJ Armitage, HJ Armitage out. Otago up from 58% to 67%.
4.5: EJ Black to FDM Devonshire, FDM Devonshire out. Otago up from 81% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts107/7 Otago111/4

Innings 1