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ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
9 Oct 2025 · ODI
Dr. Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy ACA-VDCA Cricket Stadium, Visakhapatnam · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 74%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pratika Rawalcaught · Tazmin Brits · Tumi Sekhukhune 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tazmin Brits · b Tumi Sekhukhune | 37 | 56 | 5 | 0 | 66.07 |
 Smriti Mandhanacaught · Suné Luus · Nonkululeko Mlaba1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Suné Luus · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 23 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 71.88 |
| Harleen Deolbowled · Nonkululeko Mlaba 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 13 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 56.52 |
 Harmanpreet Kaurcaught · Marizanne Kapp · Chloe Tryon0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marizanne Kapp · b Chloe Tryon | 9 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
India's chances ranged from 14% to 94% during the match (South Africa: 6% to 86%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Chloe Tryon |
| 0 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Deepti Sharmacaught · Sinalo Jafta · Marizanne Kapp0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sinalo Jafta · b Marizanne Kapp | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Amanjot Kaurcaught · Suné Luus · Chloe Tryon 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suné Luus · b Chloe Tryon | 13 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 29.55 |
|---|
 Richa Ghoshcaught · Chloe Tryon · Nadine de Klerk11 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Chloe Tryon · b Nadine de Klerk | 94 | 77 | 11 | 4 | 122.08 |
|---|
| Sneh Ranacaught · Laura Wolvaardt · Marizanne Kapp 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Laura Wolvaardt · b Marizanne Kapp | 33 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 137.50 |
|---|
| Kranti Goudnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Shree Charanicaught · Laura Wolvaardt · Nadine de Klerk 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Laura Wolvaardt · b Nadine de Klerk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 24 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marizanne Kapp0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 45 | 2 | 5.00 | 2 | 1 |
 Ayabonga Khaka0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 6.71 | 4 | 0 |
| Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.5 | 0 | 52 | 2 | 7.61 | 7 | 0 |
 Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 46 | 2 | 4.60 | 7 | 0 |
| Tumi Sekhukhune0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 4.14 | 2 | 0 |
 Chloe Tryon0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 32 | 3 | 3.20 | 2 | 0 |
1-55 (Smriti Mandhana, 10.2) · 2-83 (Harleen Deol, 17.0) · 3-91 (Pratika Rawal, 19.4) · 4-92 (Jemimah Rodrigues, 20.4) · 5-100 (Harmanpreet Kaur, 24.2) · 6-102 (Deepti Sharma, 26.0) · 7-153 (Amanjot Kaur, 40.0) · 8-241 (Sneh Rana, 48.5) · 9-251 (Richa Ghosh, 49.4) · 10-251 (Shree Charani, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 10 | 32/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 33/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 36/0 |
| 8 | 9 | 45/0 |
| 9 | 3 | 48/0 |
| 10 | 7 | 55/0 |
| 11 | 4 | 59/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 61/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 64/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 69/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 71/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 74/1 |
| 17 | 9 | 83/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 85/2 |
| 19 | 2 | 87/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 91/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 92/4 |
| 22 | 1 | 93/4 |
| 23 | 3 | 96/4 |
| 24 | 3 | 99/4 |
| 25 | 1 | 100/5 |
| 26 | 2 | 102/6 |
| 27 | 1 | 103/6 |
| 28 | 1 | 104/6 |
| 29 | 6 | 110/6 |
| 30 | 4 | 114/6 |
| 31 | 2 | 116/6 |
| 32 | 2 | 118/6 |
| 33 | 7 | 125/6 |
| 34 | 3 | 128/6 |
| 35 | 2 | 130/6 |
| 36 | 7 | 137/6 |
| 37 | 6 | 143/6 |
| 38 | 6 | 149/6 |
| 39 | 1 | 150/6 |
| 40 | 3 | 153/7 |
| 41 | 1 | 154/7 |
| 42 | 9 | 163/7 |
| 43 | 11 | 174/7 |
| 44 | 16 | 190/7 |
| 45 | 7 | 197/7 |
| 46 | 6 | 203/7 |
| 47 | 19 | 222/7 |
| 48 | 9 | 231/7 |
| 49 | 10 | 241/8 |
| 50 | 10 | 251/10 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marizanne Kapp: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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