Timor-LesteversusIndonesia

13 Nov 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Indonesia won by 9 wickets

Timor-Leste20.0 overs70/9 Indonesia5.5 overs71/1 Udayana Cricket Ground, Bali ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Indonesia more likely to win

8%Timor-Leste92%Indonesia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Indonesia rate stronger than Timor-Leste (1,408 vs 1,110 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Indonesia won 3 and Timor-Leste won 0
Indonesia are playing at home in Indonesia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Timor-Leste started on 7%; Timor-Leste batted first.

Timor-Leste’s chance of winning (%) · Indonesia is the rest

Timor-Leste's chances ranged from 0% to 8% during the match (Indonesia: 92% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: D Nanda to Rahat Kazi, Rahat Kazi out. Indonesia up from 92% to 94%.
2.2: J Dzulfikar to Yahya Suhail, Yahya Suhail out. Indonesia up from 94% to 96%.
8.5: DGAPD Wiswi to Raihan Hossain, Raihan Hossain out. Indonesia up from 96% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Timor-Leste70/9 Indonesia71/1

Innings 1

Timor-Leste

70/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Timor-Leste batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
Rahat Kazirun out · Ahmad Ramdoni, Anjar Tadarus · Divit Nanda 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Ahmad Ramdoni, Anjar Tadarus	6	5	0	120.00
Raihan Hossainrun out · Ahmad Ramdoni, Ketut Artawan · Dewa Wiswi 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Ahmad Ramdoni, Ketut Artawan	19	28	2	67.86
Yahya Suhailstumped · Ahmad Ramdoni · J Dzulfikar 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Ahmad Ramdoni · b J Dzulfikar	1	4	0	25.00
Nazmul Hudarun out · Ahmad Ramdoni, Ketut Artawan · Gede Arta 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Ahmad Ramdoni, Ketut Artawan	0	4	0	0.00
D Mendoncalbw · Dhanesh Shetty 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Dhanesh Shetty	4	35	0	11.43

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
J Dzulfikar2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	11	1	2.75	2	0
Divit Nanda0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	16	1	4.00	4	1
Gede Arta2 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	7	2	1.75	3	0
Ketut Artawan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	3	0	1.50	1	0
Dewa Wiswi0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	0	7	0	7.00	0	1
Dhanesh Shetty0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	1	3.67	2	0
F Banunaek0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	5	0	5.00	0	0
Andreas Hawoe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	9	1	9.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	5	12/1
3	0	12/2
4	6	18/3
5	4	22/3
6	0	22/3
7	7	29/3
8	1	30/3
9	7	37/4
10	2	39/4
11	0	39/5
12	7	46/5
13	0	46/5
14	1	47/5
15	5	52/5
16	4	56/6
17	1	57/6
18	9	66/7
19	1	67/8
20	3	70/9

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