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Photo: Ullaelinakarna
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Portugal tour of Finland · 2026 · Men
3 Jul 2026 · T20
Kerava National Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Portugal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Portugal started on 53%; Portugal batted first.
Portugal's chances ranged from 40% to 99% during the match (Finland: 1% to 60%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Norotamcaught · Hammadullah Shinwari · NM Salonen 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Hammadullah Shinwari · b NM Salonen | 52 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 144.44 |
| SP Gomeslbw · Amjad Sher 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Amjad Sher | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| JP Nettocaught · Hammadullah Shinwari · NM Salonen 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Hammadullah Shinwari · b NM Salonen | 37 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 105.71 |
| J Martinscaught · MB Tambe · Akhil Arjunan 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · MB Tambe · b Akhil Arjunan | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 112.50 |
| C Nunescaught · NM Salonen · Akhil Arjunan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · NM Salonen · b Akhil Arjunan | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 83.33 |
| caught · NM Salonen · b PUKK Arachchige |
| 7 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 87.50 |
| H Khuttancaught · NM Salonen · Akhil Arjunan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · NM Salonen · b Akhil Arjunan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Edward Fleminglbw · Akhil Arjunan 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Akhil Arjunan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| R Hashunot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Sirajullah Khadimcaught · MB Tambe · Amjad Sher 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · MB Tambe · b Amjad Sher | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| U Shantunot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 5 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amjad Sher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Hammadullah Shinwari0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 7.25 | 0 | 1 |
| Akhil Arjunan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 4 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
| PUKK Arachchige0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
| MB Tambe0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 2 | 0 |
| NM Salonen0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 9.00 | 1 | 1 |
1-19 (SP Gomes, 2.1) · 2-98 (JP Netto, 11.5) · 3-103 (D Norotam, 13.1) · 4-112 (C Nunes, 14.4) · 5-129 (J Martins, 16.4) · 6-129 (H Khuttan, 16.5) · 7-129 (Edward Fleming, 17.0) · 8-131 (Sebastian de Oliveira, 17.3) · 9-137 (Sirajullah Khadim, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 20/1 |
| 4 | 18 | 38/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 48/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 52/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 56/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 60/1 |
| 9 | 11 | 71/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 76/1 |
| 11 | 9 | 85/1 |
| 12 | 14 | 99/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 103/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 108/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 113/4 |
| 16 | 10 | 123/4 |
| 17 | 6 | 129/7 |
| 18 | 4 | 133/8 |
| 19 | 5 | 138/9 |
| 20 | 4 | 142/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.