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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
9 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 75%; India batted first.
India's chances ranged from 13% to 99% during the match (Pakistan: 2% to 87%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rohit Sharmacaught · Haris Rauf · Shaheen Afridi1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Haris Rauf · b Shaheen Afridi | 13 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 108.33 |
 Virat Kohlicaught · Usman Khan · Naseem Shah1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Usman Khan · b Naseem Shah | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
 Rishabh Pantcaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Mohammad Amir6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Mohammad Amir | 42 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 135.48 |
 Axar Patelbowled · Naseem Shah2 fours · 1 sixes |
| bowled · b Naseem Shah |
| 20 |
| 18 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 111.11 |
 Suryakumar Yadavcaught · Mohammad Amir · Haris Rauf1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Amir · b Haris Rauf | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
 Shivam Dubecaught and bowled · Naseem Shah0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Naseem Shah | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Hardik Pandyacaught · Iftikhar Ahmed · Haris Rauf1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Iftikhar Ahmed · b Haris Rauf | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
 Ravindra Jadejacaught · Imad Wasim · Mohammad Amir0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Imad Wasim · b Mohammad Amir | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Arshdeep Singhrun out · Mohammad Rizwan, Mohammad Babar Azam · Shaheen Afridi1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Mohammad Rizwan, Mohammad Babar Azam | 9 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 69.23 |
|---|
 Jasprit Bumrahcaught · Imad Wasim · Haris Rauf0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Imad Wasim · b Haris Rauf | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Mohammed Sirajnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 5.25 | 2 | 1 |
 Mohammad Amir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Iftikhar Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Imad Wasim0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 1 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Virat Kohli, 1.3) · 2-19 (Rohit Sharma, 2.4) · 3-58 (Axar Patel, 7.4) · 4-89 (Suryakumar Yadav, 11.2) · 5-95 (Shivam Dube, 13.2) · 6-96 (Rishabh Pant, 14.1) · 7-96 (Ravindra Jadeja, 14.2) · 8-112 (Hardik Pandya, 17.4) · 9-112 (Jasprit Bumrah, 17.5) · 10-119 (Arshdeep Singh, 19.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 19/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 20/2 |
| 4 | 4 | 24/2 |
| 5 | 14 | 38/2 |
| 6 | 12 | 50/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 57/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 62/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 68/3 |
| 10 | 13 | 81/3 |
| 11 | 8 | 89/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 90/4 |
| 13 | 4 | 94/4 |
| 14 | 2 | 96/5 |
| 15 | 1 | 97/7 |
| 16 | 3 | 100/7 |
| 17 | 6 | 106/7 |
| 18 | 7 | 113/9 |
| 19 | 6 | 119/10 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Suryakumar Yadav: Kolkata Knight Riders - Official · CC BY 3.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Mohammad Amir: 92 News · CC BY 3.0
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Shadab Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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