JerseyversusDenmark

16 Jun 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Jersey won by 96 runs

Jersey20.0 overs198/7 Denmark18.3 overs102/10 Svanholm Park, Brondby ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Jersey more likely to win

62%Jersey38%Denmark

Why

In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Jersey won 4 and Denmark won 0
Denmark are playing at home in Denmark
On results in T20 internationals so far, Jersey rate stronger than Denmark (1,456 vs 1,427 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Jersey started on 58%; Jersey batted first.

Jersey’s chance of winning (%) · Denmark is the rest

Jersey's chances ranged from 59% to 100% during the match (Denmark: 0% to 42%).

Biggest swings

0.6: ND Laegsgaard to AM Tribe, six by AM Tribe. Jersey up from 60% to 66%.
3.4: Toqeer Ahmad to NA Greenwood, NA Greenwood out. Denmark up from 26% to 33%.
13.6: HAM Shah to JAD Lawrenson, JAD Lawrenson out. Denmark up from 17% to 22%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Jersey198/7 Denmark102/10

Innings 1

Jersey

198/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Jersey batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Asa Tribecaught · Delawar Khan · Eshan Karimi 6 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Delawar Khan · b Eshan Karimi	51	27	6	2	188.89
Nick Greenwoodcaught · Shangeev Thanikaithasan · Toqeer Ahmad 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Shangeev Thanikaithasan · b Toqeer Ahmad	21	14	1	1	150.00
Jonty Jennerbowled · Eshan Karimi 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Eshan Karimi	26	15	3	0	173.33
Zak Tribecaught · Abdullah Mahmood · Eshan Karimi 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Abdullah Mahmood · b Eshan Karimi	15	12	0	1	125.00
Charlie Brennanbowled · Eshan Karimi 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Eshan Karimi	0	1	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Nicolaj Damgaard0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	38	0	12.67	0
Toqeer Ahmad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	1	8.50	1
Jonas Henriksen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	18	0	18.00	0
Surya Anand0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	17	0	17.00	0
Eshan Karimi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	4	5.25	1
Abdullah Mahmood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	12	0	12.00	0
Hamid Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	0
Shangeev Thanikaithasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0
Delawar Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	14	1	14.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	3	13/0
3	13	26/0
4	9	35/1
5	18	53/1
6	21	74/1
7	9	83/1
8	12	95/1
9	8	103/2
10	7	110/2
11	1	111/4
12	10	121/4
13	3	124/5
14	4	128/6
15	11	139/6
16	6	145/6
17	15	160/6
18	8	168/6
19	14	182/7
20	16	198/7

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