BhutanversusMyanmar

26 Dec 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Bhutan won by 82 runs

Bhutan20.0 overs127/9 Myanmar9.2 overs45/10 Gelephu International Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bhutan more likely to win

82%Bhutan18%Myanmar

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bhutan rate stronger than Myanmar (1,362 vs 1,224 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Bhutan won 3 and Myanmar won 0
Bhutan are playing at home in Bhutan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bhutan started on 80%; Bhutan batted first.

Bhutan’s chance of winning (%) · Myanmar is the rest

Bhutan's chances ranged from 36% to 100% during the match (Myanmar: 0% to 64%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.2: S Yeshi to KK Lin Thu, KK Lin Thu out. Bhutan up from 49% to 62%.
2nd inns 2.4: S Yeshi to H Lin Aung, H Lin Aung out. Bhutan up from 63% to 77%.
2nd inns 4.2: S Yeshi to Khin Aye, Khin Aye out. Bhutan up from 69% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bhutan127/9 Myanmar45/10

Innings 1

Bhutan

127/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bhutan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Namgay Thinleybowled · Ko Ko Lin Thu 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Ko Ko Lin Thu	27	22	2	1	122.73
Tenjin Rabgeycaught · Kaung Ko Ko · Khin Aye 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kaung Ko Ko · b Khin Aye	0	1	0	0	0.00
Ranjung Mikyo Dorjicaught · Htet Lin Aung · Ko Ko Lin Thu 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Htet Lin Aung · b Ko Ko Lin Thu	11	10	0	1	110.00
Namgang Chejaynot out 5 fours · 1 sixes	not out	50*	45	5	1	111.11
Gakul Ghalleycaught · Khin Aye · Pyae Phyo Wai 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Khin Aye · b Pyae Phyo Wai	3	8	0	0	37.50

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Khin Aye0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	1	10.00	1
Ko Ko Lin Thu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	2	6.67	0
Kaung Htet Kyaw0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	0	4.67	2
Pyae Phyo Wai0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	2	5.75	1
Thuya Aung0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	1
Htet Lin Aung0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	1	4.67	0
Zwe Htet Paing0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/1
2	5	14/1
3	11	25/1
4	4	29/1
5	6	35/1
6	11	46/3
7	2	48/3
8	8	56/3
9	6	62/3
10	3	65/4
11	9	74/4
12	4	78/4
13	9	87/5
14	8	95/6
15	8	103/6
16	1	104/7
17	1	105/8
18	3	108/8
19	9	117/8
20	10	127/9

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.