NepalversusItaly

12 Feb 2026 · T20

Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Italy won by 10 wickets

Nepal19.3 overs123/10 Italy12.4 overs124/0 Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

72%Nepal28%Italy

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Italy (1,647 vs 1,490 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nepal started on 69%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal’s chance of winning (%) · Italy is the rest

Nepal's chances ranged from 0% to 70% during the match (Italy: 30% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.6: Ali Hasan to K Bhurtel, K Bhurtel out. Italy up from 32% to 44%.
6.6: CJPF Kalugamage to RK Paudel, RK Paudel out. Italy up from 35% to 43%.
7.2: BAD Manenti to Aasif Sheikh, Aasif Sheikh out. Italy up from 44% to 55%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nepal123/10 Italy124/0

Innings 1

Nepal

123/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kushal Bhurtelcaught · J Mosca · Ali Hasan 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · J Mosca · b Ali Hasan	5	10	1	0	50.00
Aasif Sheikhstumped · Gian-Piero Meade · Ben Manenti 2 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Gian-Piero Meade · b Ben Manenti	20	20	2	0	100.00
Rohit Kumarcaught · Grant Stewart · CJPF Kalugamage 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Grant Stewart · b CJPF Kalugamage	23	14	0	2	164.29
Dipendra Singh Aireebowled · CJPF Kalugamage 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b CJPF Kalugamage	17

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ben Manenti0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	9	2	2.25	1
Ali Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	34	1	11.33	0
Jon-Jon Smuts0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	1	5.50	0
Grant Stewart0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	0	10.67	0
CJPF Kalugamage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	3	4.50	0
Jaspreet Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.3	8	1	5.33	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	7	8/1
3	2	10/1
4	13	23/1
5	10	33/1
6	13	46/1
7	3	49/2
8	3	52/3
9	9	61/3
10	6	67/3
11	12	79/3
12	2	81/3
13	8	89/3
14	5	94/4
15	3	97/5
16	4	101/6
17	1	102/8
18	14	116/8
19	7	123/8
20	0	123/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.