UgandaversusThailand

29 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Thailand won by 9 wickets

Uganda17.4 overs62/10 Thailand11.3 overs64/1 Sheikh Zayed Stadium Nursery 1, Abu Dhabi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

41%Uganda59%Thailand

Why

In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 1 and Uganda won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Uganda (1,518 vs 1,492 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Uganda started on 38%; Uganda batted first.

Uganda’s chance of winning (%) · Thailand is the rest

Uganda's chances ranged from 0% to 43% during the match (Thailand: 57% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.3: C Sutthiruang to P Alako, P Alako out. Thailand up from 61% to 67%.
4.6: C Sutthiruang to I Nakisuuyi, I Nakisuuyi out. Thailand up from 68% to 73%.
17.4: N Boochatham to S Akiteng, S Akiteng out. Thailand up from 93% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Uganda62/10 Thailand64/1

Innings 1

Uganda

62/1017.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Uganda batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
Prosscovia Alakolbw · Chanida Sutthiruang 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Chanida Sutthiruang	10	21	2	47.62
Immaculate Nakisuuyilbw · Chanida Sutthiruang 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Chanida Sutthiruang	5	7	0	71.43
Janet Mbabazirun out · Nannapat Koncharoenkai, Naruemol Chaiwai · Suleeporn Laomi 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Nannapat Koncharoenkai, Naruemol Chaiwai	14	32	0	43.75
Stephanie Nampiinacaught · Chanida Sutthiruang · T Putthawong 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Chanida Sutthiruang · b T Putthawong	1	2	0	50.00
Rita Musamalilbw · Nattaya Boochatham 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Nattaya Boochatham	24	22	1	109.09

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Chanida Sutthiruang0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	10	2	2.50	0
Nattaya Boochatham0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.4	8	2	3.00	1
T Putthawong0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	7	2	2.33	0
S Chaturongrattana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	3	0	3.00	0
Suleeporn Laomi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	1
Onnicha Kamchomphu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	9	1	3.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	4	8/0
3	4	12/0
4	4	16/0
5	2	18/2
6	3	21/2
7	1	22/2
8	3	25/3
9	3	28/3
10	5	33/3
11	4	37/3
12	3	40/4
13	4	44/4
14	10	54/5
15	1	55/6
16	6	61/6
17	1	62/8
18	0	62/10

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