Islamabad UnitedversusMultan Sultans

20 Feb 2024 · T20

Multan Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Multan Sultans won by 5 wickets

Islamabad United20.0 overs144/10 Multan Sultans19.5 overs145/5 Multan Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Islamabad United started on 47%; Islamabad United batted first.

Islamabad United’s chance of winning (%) · Multan Sultans is the rest

Islamabad United's chances ranged from 2% to 50% during the match (Multan Sultans: 50% to 99%).

Biggest swings

2.4: DJ Willey to AD Hales, AD Hales out. Multan Sultans up from 57% to 68%.
3.4: Mohammad Ali to C Munro, C Munro out. Multan Sultans up from 68% to 78%.
2nd inns 17.6: TS Mills to Iftikhar Ahmed, six by Iftikhar Ahmed. Multan Sultans up from 85% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Islamabad United144/10 Multan Sultans145/5

Innings 1