St Kitts and Nevis PatriotsversusSt Lucia Kings

3 Sept 2026 · T20

Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photograph

Recorded result

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots won by 137 runs

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs235/4 St Lucia Kings13.5 overs98/10 Warner Park, St Kitts ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots started on 38%; St Kitts and Nevis Patriots batted first.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots’s chance of winning (%) · St Lucia Kings is the rest

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's chances ranged from 24% to 100% during the match (St Lucia Kings: 0% to 77%).

Biggest swings

1.2: MW Forde to KR Mayers, KR Mayers out. St Lucia Kings up from 59% to 71%.
9.2: RL Chase to J Charles, J Charles out. St Lucia Kings up from 40% to 48%.
2nd inns 0.3: AR Nedd to K Pooran, K Pooran out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 81% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots235/4 St Lucia Kings98/10

Innings 1