Sri LankaversusMalaysia

18 Sept 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 86 runs

Sri Lanka20.0 overs160/4 Malaysia20.0 overs74/7 Korogi Sports Park ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

90%Sri Lanka10%Malaysia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Malaysia (1,682 vs 1,400 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 4 and Malaysia won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 90%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Malaysia is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 82% to 100% during the match (Malaysia: 0% to 18%).

Biggest swings

2.4: Aisya Eleesa to I Dulani, I Dulani out. Malaysia up from 12% to 16%.
4.3: Aisya Eleesa to AC Jayangani, four by AC Jayangani. Sri Lanka up from 82% to 84%.
4.5: Aisya Eleesa to AC Jayangani, six by AC Jayangani. Sri Lanka up from 85% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka160/4 Malaysia74/7

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

160/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Imesha Dulanirun out · Wan Julia, Nur Dania Syuhada · Aisya Eleesa 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Wan Julia, Nur Dania Syuhada	2	11	0	0	18.18
Chamari Atapattucaught · Dhanusri Muhunan · Nurin Imanina 7 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Dhanusri Muhunan · b Nurin Imanina	63	37	7	3	170.27
Hasini Pereracaught · Nur Arianna Natsya · Nurin Imanina 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nur Arianna Natsya · b Nurin Imanina	23	26	3	0	88.46
Kavisha Dilharinot out 6 fours · 0 sixes	not out

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Aisya Eleesa0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	0	7.67	1
Nur Dania Syuhada0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	0	6.75	0
Ainna Hamizah Hashim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	21	0	10.50	0
Mahirah Ismail0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	0	9.33	0
Winifred Duraisingam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	0	8.00	0
Nurin Imanina0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	3	7.25	0
Dhanusri Muhunan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	0	7.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	4	6/0
3	1	7/1
4	3	10/1
5	20	30/1
6	8	38/1
7	8	46/1
8	2	48/1
9	13	61/1
10	11	72/1
11	12	84/1
12	6	90/2
13	4	94/2
14	6	100/3
15	8	108/3
16	8	116/3
17	8	124/3
18	12	136/3
19	15	151/3
20	9	160/4

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