ZambiaversusRwanda

7 Dec 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Rwanda won by 8 wickets

Zambia17.5 overs83/10 Rwanda11.5 overs84/2 Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1, Abuja ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Rwanda more likely to win

24%Zambia76%Rwanda

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Rwanda rate stronger than Zambia (1,373 vs 1,213 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Rwanda won 1 and Zambia won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zambia started on 22%; Zambia batted first.

Zambia’s chance of winning (%) · Rwanda is the rest

Zambia's chances ranged from 0% to 38% during the match (Rwanda: 62% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.2: Muhammad Nadir to Muhammad Asim, Muhammad Asim out. Rwanda up from 62% to 69%.
4.4: Muhammad Nadir to Shahnawaz Patel, Shahnawaz Patel out. Rwanda up from 69% to 75%.
12.1: E Rukiriza to JV Chand, JV Chand out. Rwanda up from 83% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zambia83/10 Rwanda84/2

Innings 1

Zambia

83/1017.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zambia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Shahnawaz Patellbw · Muhammad Nadir 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Muhammad Nadir	12	14	2	0	85.71
Muhammad Asim (2)caught · D Gumyusenge · Muhammad Nadir 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · D Gumyusenge · b Muhammad Nadir	14	13	3	0	107.69
JV Chandcaught · O Manishimwe · E Rukiriza 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · O Manishimwe · b E Rukiriza	12	21	1	0	57.14
Javid Patelbowled · E Rukiriza 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b E Rukiriza	7	13	1	0	53.85
Jakir Patelcaught · O Manishimwe · E Rukiriza 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · O Manishimwe · b E Rukiriza	2	6	0	0	33.33

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Z Bimenyimana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	17	2	5.67	1
I Ntirenganya1 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	1	18	2	4.70	6
Muhammad Nadir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	13	2	4.33	0
JM Iradukunda0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	7	0	3.50	1
E Rukiriza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	4	4.50	0
C Rububagumya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	0	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	7	16/0
3	6	22/0
4	10	32/0
5	2	34/2
6	4	38/2
7	2	40/2
8	3	43/2
9	6	49/3
10	4	53/3
11	1	54/4
12	6	60/4
13	4	64/5
14	9	73/5
15	7	80/6
16	0	80/7
17	2	82/9
18	1	83/10

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