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Photo: A Cricket Premi
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
14 Feb 2026 · T20
Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 60%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 73% during the match (South Africa: 27% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Seifertcaught · Quinton de Kock · Marco Jansen 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Quinton de Kock · b Marco Jansen | 13 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 144.44 |
| Finn Allencaught · Aiden Markram · Marco Jansen 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Marco Jansen | 31 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 182.35 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · David Miller · Marco Jansen1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · David Miller · b Marco Jansen | 13 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 162.50 |
| Glenn Phillipsbowled · Keshav Maharaj 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Keshav Maharaj | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Mark Chapmancaught · Ryan Rickelton · Marco Jansen 6 fours · 2 sixes |
| caught · Ryan Rickelton · b Marco Jansen |
| 48 |
| 26 |
| 6 |
| 2 |
| 184.62 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Tristan Stubbs · Lungi Ngidi 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tristan Stubbs · b Lungi Ngidi | 32 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · Ryan Rickelton · Corbin Bosch 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ryan Rickelton · b Corbin Bosch | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| James Neeshamnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 23* | 15 | 3 | 0 | 153.33 |
|---|
 Matt Henrynot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 8 | 1 | 0 | 112.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Kagiso Rabada0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Marco Jansen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 40 | 4 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Aiden Markram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-33 (Tim Seifert, 3.2) · 2-57 (Rachin Ravindra, 5.2) · 3-58 (Finn Allen, 5.5) · 4-64 (Glenn Phillips, 6.4) · 5-138 (Mark Chapman, 14.0) · 6-141 (Daryl Mitchell, 15.3) · 7-145 (Mitchell Santner, 16.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 18 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 17 | 44/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 51/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 58/3 |
| 7 | 13 | 71/4 |
| 8 | 6 | 77/4 |
| 9 | 9 | 86/4 |
| 10 | 6 | 92/4 |
| 11 | 14 | 106/4 |
| 12 | 15 | 121/4 |
| 13 | 10 | 131/4 |
| 14 | 7 | 138/5 |
| 15 | 2 | 140/5 |
| 16 | 3 | 143/6 |
| 17 | 4 | 147/7 |
| 18 | 8 | 155/7 |
| 19 | 10 | 165/7 |
| 20 | 10 | 175/7 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lockie Ferguson: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
David Miller: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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