Chattogram ChallengersversusKhulna Tigers

20 Jan 2024 · T20

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Khulna Tigers won by 4 wickets

Chattogram Challengers19.5 overs121/10 Khulna Tigers18.2 overs122/6 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Chattogram Challengers started on 49%; Chattogram Challengers batted first.

Chattogram Challengers’s chance of winning (%) · Khulna Tigers is the rest

Chattogram Challengers's chances ranged from 0% to 50% during the match (Khulna Tigers: 50% to 100%).

Biggest swings

8.5: Faheem Ashraf to Shuvagata Hom, Shuvagata Hom out. Khulna Tigers up from 65% to 77%.
2nd inns 4.2: Al-Amin Hossain to SD Hope, SD Hope out. Chattogram Challengers up from 18% to 30%.
2nd inns 14.1: Bilal Khan to Habibur Rahman, Habibur Rahman out. Chattogram Challengers up from 11% to 22%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Chattogram Challengers121/10 Khulna Tigers122/6

Innings 1