PakistanversusZimbabwe

1 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 57 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs165/4 Zimbabwe15.3 overs108/10 Queens Sports Club, Bulawayo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Zimbabwe more likely to win

39%Pakistan61%Zimbabwe

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Zimbabwe rate stronger than Pakistan (1,603 vs 1,492 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 8 and Zimbabwe won 2
Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 40%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 70%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.5: Abrar Ahmed to D Myers, D Myers out. Pakistan up from 58% to 72%.
2nd inns 10.3: Haris Rauf to RP Burl, RP Burl out. Pakistan up from 40% to 58%.
2nd inns 11.2: Sufiyan Muqeem to C Madande, C Madande out. Pakistan up from 54% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan165/4 Zimbabwe108/10

Innings 1

Pakistan

165/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Omair Yousufcaught · Wellington Masakadza · Richard Ngarava 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Wellington Masakadza · b Richard Ngarava	16	13	1	1	123.08
Saim Ayubcaught · Trevor Gwandu · Wellington Masakadza 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Trevor Gwandu · b Wellington Masakadza	24	18	2	1	133.33
Usman Khancaught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · Ryan Burl 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · b Ryan Burl	39	30	2	2	130.00
Salman Ali Aghacaught · Dion Myers · Sikandar Raza 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dion Myers · b Sikandar Raza	13	19	0	0	68.42
Tayyab Tahirnot out4 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	1	10.25	0
Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	0	10.25	0
Trevor Gwandu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	0	7.00	2
Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	1	3.50	0
Wellington Masakadza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	1	7.67	0
Ryan Burl0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	27	1	9.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	13	16/0
3	12	28/1
4	11	39/1
5	10	49/1
6	3	52/1
7	3	55/1
8	4	59/2
9	6	65/2
10	13	78/2
11	2	80/2
12	5	85/2
13	9	94/3
14	6	100/3
15	5	105/4
16	12	117/4
17	4	121/4
18	10	131/4
19	18	149/4
20	16	165/4

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