Sri LankaversusBangladesh

16 Jul 2025 · T20

R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 8 wickets

Sri Lanka20.0 overs132/7 Bangladesh16.3 overs133/2 R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

57%Sri Lanka43%Bangladesh

Why

Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka
On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,537 vs 1,529 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 55%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 67% during the match (Bangladesh: 33% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.3: Mahedi Hasan to LD Chandimal, LD Chandimal out. Bangladesh up from 48% to 59%.
10.3: Mahedi Hasan to P Nissanka, P Nissanka out. Bangladesh up from 60% to 71%.
2nd inns 0.1: N Thushara to Parvez Hossain Emon, Parvez Hossain Emon out. Sri Lanka up from 35% to 49%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka132/7 Bangladesh133/2

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

132/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Pathum Nissankacaught and bowled · Mahedi Hasan 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Mahedi Hasan	46	39	4	0	117.95
Kusal Mendiscaught · Tawhid Hridoy · Shariful Islam 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tawhid Hridoy · b Shariful Islam	6	4	1	0	150.00
Kushal Janith Pereracaught · Tanzid Hasan · Mahedi Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tanzid Hasan · b Mahedi Hasan	0	1	0	0	0.00
Dinesh Chandimalcaught · Jaker Ali · Mahedi Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jaker Ali · b Mahedi Hasan	4	5	0	0	80.00
Charith Asalankabowled · Mahedi Hasan0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shariful Islam0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	50	1	12.50	2
Mahedi Hasan1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	11	4	2.75	1
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	17	1	4.25	0
Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	23	0	11.50	0
Shamim Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	1	5.00	0
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	0	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	14	14/1
2	7	21/2
3	7	28/2
4	5	33/2
5	1	34/3
6	6	40/3
7	8	48/3
8	3	51/4
9	6	57/4
10	9	66/4
11	0	66/5
12	7	73/5
13	15	88/5
14	4	92/6
15	2	94/6
16	7	101/6
17	2	103/7
18	2	105/7
19	5	110/7
20	22	132/7

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