Washington FreedomversusSan Francisco Unicorns

28 Jul 2024 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Washington Freedom won by 96 runs

Washington Freedom20.0 overs207/5 San Francisco Unicorns16.0 overs111/10 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Washington Freedom started on 50%; Washington Freedom batted first.

Washington Freedom’s chance of winning (%) · San Francisco Unicorns is the rest

Washington Freedom's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (San Francisco Unicorns: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

1.2: PJ Cummins to TM Head, TM Head out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 42% to 53%.
5.5: Hassan Khan to AGS Gous, AGS Gous out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 38% to 46%.
10.1: Haris Rauf to R Ravindra, R Ravindra out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 33% to 39%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Washington Freedom207/5 San Francisco Unicorns111/10

Innings 1