New ZealandversusIndia

23 Jan 2026 · T20

Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Stadium, Raipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 7 wickets

New Zealand20.0 overs208/6 India15.2 overs209/3 Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Stadium, Raipur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

16%New Zealand84%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than New Zealand (1,846 vs 1,666 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and New Zealand won 2 (1 tied)
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 14%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 72% during the match (India: 28% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.2: Harshit Rana to DP Conway, DP Conway out. India up from 66% to 76%.
2nd inns 0.5: MJ Henry to SV Samson, SV Samson out. New Zealand up from 40% to 52%.
2nd inns 1.1: JA Duffy to Abhishek Sharma, Abhishek Sharma out. New Zealand up from 52% to 66%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand208/6 India209/3

Innings 1

New Zealand

208/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Devon Conwaycaught · Hardik Pandya · Harshit Rana 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Hardik Pandya · b Harshit Rana	19	9	3	1	211.11
Tim Seifertcaught · Ishan Kishan · Varun Chakravarthy 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ishan Kishan · b Varun Chakravarthy	24	13	5	0	184.62
Rachin Ravindracaught · Arshdeep Singh · Kuldeep Yadav 2 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Arshdeep Singh · b Kuldeep Yadav	44	26	2	4	169.23
Glenn Phillipscaught · Hardik Pandya · Kuldeep Yadav 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Hardik Pandya · b Kuldeep Yadav	19	13	2	1	146.15
Daryl Mitchellcaught · Hardik Pandya · Shivam Dube3 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	53	0	13.25	1
Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	25	1	8.33	1
Harshit Rana1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	35	1	11.67	2
Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	35	1	8.75	2
Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	35	2	8.75	0
Abhishek Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	12	0	12.00	0
Shivam Dube0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	7	1	7.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	18	18/0
2	7	25/0
3	18	43/0
4	0	43/1
5	2	45/2
6	19	64/2
7	4	68/2
8	16	84/2
9	15	99/3
10	12	111/3
11	9	120/3
12	7	127/4
13	5	132/5
14	8	140/5
15	11	151/5
16	4	155/5
17	6	161/6
18	17	178/6
19	13	191/6
20	17	208/6

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