Chattogram ChallengersversusKhulna Tigers

20 Feb 2024 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Chattogram Challengers won by 65 runs

Chattogram Challengers20.0 overs192/4 Khulna Tigers19.5 overs127/10 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Chattogram Challengers started on 50%; Chattogram Challengers batted first.

Chattogram Challengers’s chance of winning (%) · Khulna Tigers is the rest

Chattogram Challengers's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Khulna Tigers: 0% to 65%).

Biggest swings

1.5: Nasum Ahmed to Waseem Muhammad, Waseem Muhammad out. Khulna Tigers up from 54% to 65%.
2nd inns 8.1: Shohidul Islam to Anamul Haque, Anamul Haque out. Chattogram Challengers up from 67% to 77%.
2nd inns 9.2: Shuvagata Hom to SD Hope, SD Hope out. Chattogram Challengers up from 77% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Chattogram Challengers192/4 Khulna Tigers127/10

Innings 1