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South Africa Women tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Women
20 Mar 2026 · T20
Eden Park, Auckland · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 39%; South Africa batted first.
South Africa's chances ranged from 1% to 71% during the match (New Zealand: 29% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suné Luusbowled · Jess Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jess Kerr | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Tazmin Britsbowled · Rosemary Mair 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rosemary Mair | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Laura Wolvaardtrun out · Amelia Kerr · Rosemary Mair3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Amelia Kerr | 37 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 94.87 |
| Annerie Dercksenbowled · Sophie Devine 2 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Sophie Devine | 27 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 150.00 |
 Chloe Tryoncaught · Izzy Sharp · Suzie Bates2 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Izzy Sharp · b Suzie Bates |
| 15 |
| 12 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 125.00 |
| Nadine de Klerkcaught · Izzy Sharp · Sophie Devine 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Izzy Sharp · b Sophie Devine | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 61.54 |
|---|
| K Reynekenot out 2 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 34* | 20 | 2 | 3 | 170.00 |
|---|
| Sinalo Jaftacaught · Maddy Green · Suzie Bates 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Maddy Green · b Suzie Bates | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Ayabonga Khakanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 13 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Kerr0 maidens · 9 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 9 | 0 |
| Rosemary Mair0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Lea Tahuhu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6.33 | 2 | 0 |
 Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Sophie Devine0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Suzie Bates0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Tazmin Brits, 1.2) · 2-9 (Suné Luus, 2.1) · 3-60 (Annerie Dercksen, 8.0) · 4-84 (Chloe Tryon, 11.2) · 5-101 (Nadine de Klerk, 14.4) · 6-113 (Laura Wolvaardt, 16.4) · 7-119 (Sinalo Jafta, 17.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 3 | 12/2 |
| 4 | 9 | 21/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 27/2 |
| 6 | 12 | 39/2 |
| 7 | 8 | 47/2 |
| 8 | 13 | 60/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 65/3 |
| 10 | 14 | 79/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 84/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 88/4 |
| 13 | 6 | 94/4 |
| 14 | 6 | 100/4 |
| 15 | 3 | 103/5 |
| 16 | 4 | 107/5 |
| 17 | 7 | 114/6 |
| 18 | 6 | 120/7 |
| 19 | 10 | 130/7 |
| 20 | 19 | 149/7 |
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lea Tahuhu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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