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Nepal v West Indies T20I Series · 2025 · Men
30 Sept 2025 · T20
Sharjah Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 77%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 0% to 82% during the match (West Indies: 18% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelcaught · Kyle Mayers · Akeal Hosein2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Kyle Mayers · b Akeal Hosein | 39 | 29 | 2 | 3 | 134.48 |
 Kushal Mallacaught · Amir Jangoo · Jason Holder1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amir Jangoo · b Jason Holder | 12 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
 Rohit Kumarcaught · Amir Jangoo · Ramon Simmonds0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Amir Jangoo · b Ramon Simmonds | 17 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 89.47 |
 Gulsan Jharun out · Karima Gore, Akeal Hosein · Karima Gore0 fours · 1 sixes |
| run out · Karima Gore, Akeal Hosein |
| 10 |
| 12 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 83.33 |
| Sundeep Joracaught · Fabian Allen · Jediah Blades 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Fabian Allen · b Jediah Blades | 14 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 93.33 |
|---|
 Aarif Sheikhcaught · Jason Holder · Ramon Simmonds1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jason Holder · b Ramon Simmonds | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Mohammad Aadil Alamrun out · Jason Holder, Akeal Hosein · Jason Holder0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jason Holder, Akeal Hosein | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Lokesh Bamcaught · Amir Jangoo · Jediah Blades 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amir Jangoo · b Jediah Blades | 9 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 90.00 |
|---|
 Sompal Kamilbw · Ramon Simmonds0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ramon Simmonds | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Karan KCbowled · Ramon Simmonds0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ramon Simmonds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Shahab Alamnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kyle Mayers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 0 | 1 |
 Jason Holder0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Jediah Blades0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 5.22 | 1 | 0 |
| Karima Gore0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 7.67 | 4 | 0 |
| Navin Bidaisee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ramon Simmonds0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-41 (Kushal Malla, 7.0) · 2-60 (Kushal Bhurtel, 9.5) · 3-75 (Rohit Kumar, 12.2) · 4-84 (Gulsan Jha, 13.5) · 5-91 (Aarif Sheikh, 14.3) · 6-105 (Mohammad Aadil Alam, 16.2) · 7-109 (Sundeep Jora, 17.1) · 8-118 (Sompal Kami, 18.4) · 9-118 (Karan KC, 18.5) · 10-122 (Lokesh Bam, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 26/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 31/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 37/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 41/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 45/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 51/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 60/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 65/2 |
| 12 | 10 | 75/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 77/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 85/4 |
| 15 | 9 | 94/5 |
| 16 | 5 | 99/5 |
| 17 | 10 | 109/6 |
| 18 | 5 | 114/7 |
| 19 | 4 | 118/9 |
| 20 | 4 | 122/10 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Kyle Mayers: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Aadil Alam: Madhesh Province Cricket · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
