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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Region Final · 2025/26 · Men
30 Sept 2025 · T20
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Malawi started on 24%; Malawi batted first.
Malawi's chances ranged from 0% to 29% during the match (Namibia: 71% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Limdawalacaught · Jan-Izak de Villiers · Ben Shikongo 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jan-Izak de Villiers · b Ben Shikongo | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Sami Sohailbowled · JJ Smit 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b JJ Smit | 11 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 68.75 |
| G Kansonkhonot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 31* | 31 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
| SY Nihutebowled · JJ Smit 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b JJ Smit | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| MA Baigbowled · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
| Kazim Somanibowled · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 fours · 0 sixes |
| bowled · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| SZ Vayanilbw · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| M Choambabowled · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Daniel Jackielcaught · Zane Green · Ruben Trumpelmann 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zane Green · b Ruben Trumpelmann | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| B Balalacaught · Jan Frylinck · JJ Smit 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jan Frylinck · b JJ Smit | 7 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 26.92 |
|---|
| K Thuchilabowled · Gerhard Erasmus 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gerhard Erasmus | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Shikongo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
| JJ Smit0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 3.33 | 3 | 0 |
| Ruben Trumpelmann0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Brassell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Jan-Izak de Villiers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-15 (A Limdawala, 2.5) · 2-20 (Sami Sohail, 4.2) · 3-20 (SY Nihute, 4.3) · 4-28 (MA Baig, 6.1) · 5-28 (Kazim Somani, 6.2) · 6-28 (SZ Vayani, 6.3) · 7-28 (M Choamba, 6.4) · 8-35 (Daniel Jackiel, 7.5) · 9-70 (B Balala, 15.5) · 10-71 (K Thuchila, 16.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 20/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 23/3 |
| 6 | 5 | 28/3 |
| 7 | 1 | 29/7 |
| 8 | 6 | 35/8 |
| 9 | 1 | 36/8 |
| 10 | 5 | 41/8 |
| 11 | 4 | 45/8 |
| 12 | 10 | 55/8 |
| 13 | 4 | 59/8 |
| 14 | 6 | 65/8 |
| 15 | 2 | 67/8 |
| 16 | 4 | 71/9 |
| 17 | 0 | 71/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
