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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier B · 2025/26 · Men
27 Mar 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Tanzania more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Tanzania started on 77%; Tanzania batted first.
Tanzania's chances ranged from 78% to 100% during the match (Seychelles: 0% to 23%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DA Mehtacaught · M Mariyappan · Thilina Silva 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Mariyappan · b Thilina Silva | 49 | 48 | 4 | 0 | 102.08 |
| II Selemanicaught · N Gnanapragasam · Thilina Silva 10 fours · 4 sixes | caught · N Gnanapragasam · b Thilina Silva | 110 | 52 | 10 | 4 | 211.54 |
| A Augastinnot out 4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 27* | 14 | 4 | 1 | 192.86 |
| Arun Yadavcaught · M Mariyappan · Jobayer Hossen 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · M Mariyappan · b Jobayer Hossen | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 200.00 |
| MS Makernot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Rukmal0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 12.67 | 2 | 0 |
| Jobayer Hossen0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 10.00 | 2 | 0 |
| N Gnanapragasam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mazharul Islam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| D Kalvin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 16.00 | 0 | 0 |
| TKP Rajapaksha0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 18.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Thilina Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| STRA de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-153 (DA Mehta, 15.3) · 2-180 (II Selemani, 18.0) · 3-204 (Arun Yadav, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 16 | 26/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 36/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 47/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 54/0 |
| 6 | 14 | 68/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 78/0 |
| 8 | 16 | 94/0 |
| 9 | 8 | 102/0 |
| 10 | 18 | 120/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 126/0 |
| 12 | 7 | 133/0 |
| 13 | 8 | 141/0 |
| 14 | 3 | 144/0 |
| 15 | 7 | 151/0 |
| 16 | 8 | 159/1 |
| 17 | 10 | 169/1 |
| 18 | 11 | 180/2 |
| 19 | 18 | 198/2 |
| 20 | 7 | 205/3 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.