**Newlands, Cape Town**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
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SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Sunrisers Eastern CapeversusMI Cape Town

29 Jan 2025 · T20

Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photograph

Recorded result

MI Cape Town won by 10 wickets

Sunrisers Eastern Cape19.2 overs107/10 MI Cape Town11.0 overs110/0 Newlands, Cape Town ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Eastern Cape started on 51%; Sunrisers Eastern Cape batted first.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape’s chance of winning (%) · MI Cape Town is the rest

Sunrisers Eastern Cape's chances ranged from 0% to 54% during the match (MI Cape Town: 46% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.6: K Rabada to T de Zorzi, T de Zorzi out. MI Cape Town up from 50% to 60%.
3.6: C Bosch to TB Abell, TB Abell out. MI Cape Town up from 57% to 68%.
12.1: C Bosch to M Jansen, M Jansen out. MI Cape Town up from 78% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape107/10 MI Cape Town110/0

Innings 1