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Photo: 20MBM02
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
10 Jun 2025 · ODI
Forthill, Dundee · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 45%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelbowled · Paul van Meekeren2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Paul van Meekeren | 18 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 94.74 |
| Anil Sahcaught · Noah Croes · Paul van Meekeren 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Noah Croes · b Paul van Meekeren | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
| B Sharkicaught · Wesley Barresi · Michael Levitt 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wesley Barresi · b Michael Levitt | 35 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 92.11 |
 Rohit Kumarcaught · Teja Nidamanuru · Michael Levitt0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Teja Nidamanuru · b Michael Levitt | 35 | 60 | 0 | 1 | 58.33 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 22% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 78%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Paul van Meekeren |
| 84 |
| 85 |
| 7 |
| 2 |
| 98.82 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireecaught · Wesley Barresi · Michael Levitt1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wesley Barresi · b Michael Levitt | 16 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Basir Ahamadcaught · Max O'Dowd · Aryan Dutt 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Max O'Dowd · b Aryan Dutt | 11 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 44.00 |
|---|
 Karan KCbowled · Paul van Meekeren1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Paul van Meekeren | 11 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 57.89 |
|---|
| Nandan Yadavnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
 Sandeep Lamichhanerun out · Scott Edwards, Zach Lion-Cachet · Paul van Meekeren0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Scott Edwards, Zach Lion-Cachet | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul van Meekeren0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 58 | 4 | 5.80 | 6 | 0 |
| Kyle Klein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 5.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 3.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Levitt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 3 | 4.90 | 0 | 0 |
1-20 (Kushal Bhurtel, 4.4) · 2-29 (Anil Sah, 7.0) · 3-88 (B Sharki, 20.1) · 4-106 (Rohit Kumar, 24.3) · 5-138 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 32.2) · 6-167 (Basir Ahamad, 39.4) · 7-203 (Karan KC, 45.5) · 8-233 (Aarif Sheikh, 49.3) · 9-236 (Sandeep Lamichhane, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 16/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 21/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 23/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 29/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 33/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 36/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 37/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 38/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 43/2 |
| 13 | 9 | 52/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 56/2 |
| 15 | 8 | 64/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 66/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 70/2 |
| 18 | 6 | 76/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 83/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 88/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 90/3 |
| 22 | 3 | 93/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 96/3 |
| 24 | 9 | 105/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 108/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 110/4 |
| 27 | 3 | 113/4 |
| 28 | 3 | 116/4 |
| 29 | 7 | 123/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 127/4 |
| 31 | 5 | 132/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 134/4 |
| 33 | 8 | 142/5 |
| 34 | 1 | 143/5 |
| 35 | 7 | 150/5 |
| 36 | 1 | 151/5 |
| 37 | 5 | 156/5 |
| 38 | 2 | 158/5 |
| 39 | 6 | 164/5 |
| 40 | 5 | 169/6 |
| 41 | 1 | 170/6 |
| 42 | 1 | 171/6 |
| 43 | 5 | 176/6 |
| 44 | 8 | 184/6 |
| 45 | 12 | 196/6 |
| 46 | 9 | 205/7 |
| 47 | 4 | 209/7 |
| 48 | 4 | 213/7 |
| 49 | 10 | 223/7 |
| 50 | 13 | 236/9 |
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
