BotswanaversusCameroon

31 May 2024 · T20

Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Botswana won by 44 runs

Botswana20.0 overs106/7 Cameroon20.0 overs62/9 Gahanga International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

51%Botswana49%Cameroon

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Botswana rate stronger than Cameroon (1,334 vs 1,330 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Botswana started on 50%; Botswana batted first.

Botswana’s chance of winning (%) · Cameroon is the rest

Botswana's chances ranged from 29% to 100% during the match (Cameroon: 0% to 71%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.1: G Matome to MLN Sissako, MLN Sissako out. Botswana up from 36% to 48%.
2nd inns 6.3: T Shadrack to JAN Ngono, JAN Ngono out. Botswana up from 57% to 68%.
2nd inns 6.4: T Shadrack to B Waluma, B Waluma out. Botswana up from 68% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Botswana106/7 Cameroon62/9

Innings 1

Botswana

106/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Botswana batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
O Kgeresibowled · O Ranedoumoun 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b O Ranedoumoun	0	3	0	0	0.00
L Mophakedibowled · TMA Leslie 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b TMA Leslie	4	11	0	0	36.36
T Shadracknot out 2 fours · 0 sixes	not out	38*	56	2	0	67.86
S Mosweurun out · MLN Sissako, CD Mboe · CD Mboe 4 fours · 0 sixes	run out · MLN Sissako, CD Mboe	20	15	4	0	133.33
Pako Mapotsanecaught · TMA Leslie · JAN Ngono 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · TMA Leslie · b JAN Ngono	1	3	0	0	33.33
G Matomecaught · ME Bessala · CD Mboe0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
O Ranedoumoun0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	19	1	4.75	4	1
E Guehoada0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	0	6.75	4	0
TMA Leslie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	1	3.25	0	0
JAN Ngono0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	1	7.00	3	0
CD Mboe0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	12	2	4.00	3	0
MLN Sissako0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	6	0	6.00	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	1	4/1
3	4	8/1
4	2	10/2
5	11	21/2
6	1	22/2
7	7	29/2
8	12	41/2
9	8	49/3
10	1	50/4
11	3	53/5
12	8	61/5
13	4	65/5
14	8	73/5
15	7	80/5
16	5	85/5
17	1	86/6
18	6	92/6
19	8	100/6
20	6	106/7

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