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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Europe Region Final · 2025 · Men
11 Jul 2025 · T20
Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Italy started on 51%; Italy batted first.
Italy's chances ranged from 0% to 60% during the match (Netherlands: 40% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Moscacaught · Zach Lion-Cachet · Kyle Klein 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zach Lion-Cachet · b Kyle Klein | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Emilio Gaylbw · Aryan Dutt 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Aryan Dutt | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
| Joe Burnscaught · Bas de Leede · Roelof van der Merwe 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Bas de Leede · b Roelof van der Merwe | 22 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 104.76 |
| Harry Manentibowled · Kyle Klein 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Kyle Klein | 23 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
| Marcus Campopianocaught · Bas de Leede · Roelof van der Merwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Bas de Leede · b Roelof van der Merwe | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| caught · Noah Croes · b Paul van Meekeren |
| 30 |
| 27 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 111.11 |
 Grant Stewartcaught · Max O'Dowd · Roelof van der Merwe0 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Max O'Dowd · b Roelof van der Merwe | 25 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 156.25 |
|---|
| AJ Moscanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 13* | 14 | 1 | 0 | 92.86 |
|---|
| Jaspreet Singhnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Klein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Bas de Leede0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul van Meekeren0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Saqib Zulfiqar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Emilio Gay, 1.2) · 2-16 (J Mosca, 2.3) · 3-41 (Joe Burns, 6.3) · 4-46 (Marcus Campopiano, 8.1) · 5-91 (Harry Manenti, 14.3) · 6-95 (Ben Manenti, 15.2) · 7-133 (Grant Stewart, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 15/1 |
| 3 | 3 | 18/2 |
| 4 | 10 | 28/2 |
| 5 | 7 | 35/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 40/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 41/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 46/3 |
| 9 | 3 | 49/4 |
| 10 | 3 | 52/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 57/4 |
| 12 | 9 | 66/4 |
| 13 | 9 | 75/4 |
| 14 | 10 | 85/4 |
| 15 | 9 | 94/5 |
| 16 | 5 | 99/6 |
| 17 | 2 | 101/6 |
| 18 | 12 | 113/6 |
| 19 | 15 | 128/6 |
| 20 | 6 | 134/7 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Grant Stewart: Blue Square Thing · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
