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Women's T20 Quadrangular Series (in Hong Kong) · 2024/25 · Women
5 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
China started on 36%; China batted first.
China's chances ranged from 0% to 39% during the match (Namibia: 61% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zi Meicaught · Sylvia Shihepo · Irene van Zyl 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sylvia Shihepo · b Irene van Zyl | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
| Jing Yangcaught · M Mwatile · Irene van Zyl 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Mwatile · b Irene van Zyl | 11 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 57.89 |
| Cai Yuzhicaught · Wilka Mwatile · Victoria Hamunyela 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wilka Mwatile · b Victoria Hamunyela | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Mengting Liubowled · Kayleen Green 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kayleen Green | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Xu Qianlbw · Wilka Mwatile 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wilka Mwatile | 10 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 58.82 |
| bowled · b Wilka Mwatile |
| 11 |
| 12 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 91.67 |
| Jiaping Lilbw · Wilka Mwatile 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wilka Mwatile | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Wei Haitingbowled · Sune Wittmann 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sune Wittmann | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
|---|
| Zhang Yibingbowled · Wilka Mwatile 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Wilka Mwatile | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Wang Huiyingnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27.27 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene van Zyl3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Kayleen Green0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 4.75 | 5 | 0 |
| Wilka Mwatile3 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Arrasta Diergaardt1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Victoria Hamunyela0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 1 | 0 |
| M Mwatile0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Sune Wittmann0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-16 (Zi Mei, 5.0) · 2-17 (Jing Yang, 6.4) · 3-19 (Mengting Liu, 8.0) · 4-26 (Cai Yuzhi, 10.4) · 5-43 (Xu Qian, 13.1) · 6-43 (Jiaping Li, 13.2) · 7-50 (Gong Yuting, 15.1) · 8-50 (Zhang Yibing, 17.1) · 9-55 (Wei Haiting, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 16/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 16/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 17/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 17/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 19/3 |
| 9 | 2 | 21/3 |
| 10 | 1 | 22/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 26/4 |
| 12 | 7 | 33/4 |
| 13 | 10 | 43/4 |
| 14 | 0 | 43/6 |
| 15 | 7 | 50/6 |
| 16 | 0 | 50/7 |
| 17 | 0 | 50/7 |
| 18 | 0 | 50/8 |
| 19 | 2 | 52/8 |
| 20 | 3 | 55/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.