PakistanversusEngland

30 May 2024 · T20

The Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 7 wickets

Pakistan19.5 overs157/10 England15.3 overs158/3 The Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

34%Pakistan66%England

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 7 and Pakistan won 3
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than Pakistan (1,560 vs 1,533 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 30%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 55% during the match (England: 45% to 100%).

Biggest swings

9.2: AU Rashid to Shadab Khan, Shadab Khan out. England up from 63% to 72%.
10.2: MA Wood to Azam Khan, Azam Khan out. England up from 74% to 83%.
14.1: LS Livingstone to Usman Khan, Usman Khan out. England up from 62% to 71%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan157/10 England158/3

Innings 1

Pakistan

157/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mohammad Rizwanbowled · Adil Rashid 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Adil Rashid	23	16	3	0	143.75
Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Adil Rashid · Jofra Archer 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Adil Rashid · b Jofra Archer	36	22	5	1	163.64
Usman Khancaught · Chris Jordan · Liam Livingstone 3 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Chris Jordan · b Liam Livingstone	38	21	3	2	180.95
Fakhar Zamancaught · Adil Rashid · Moeen Ali0 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mark Wood0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	35	2	8.75	1
Jofra Archer0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	0	31	1	8.09	3
Chris Jordan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	24	1	8.00	0
Moeen Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	23	1	11.50	0
Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	27	2	6.75	0
Liam Livingstone1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	17	2	5.67	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	5	13/0
3	10	23/0
4	10	33/0
5	14	47/0
6	12	59/1
7	7	66/2
8	8	74/2
9	9	83/3
10	1	84/4
11	12	96/5
12	9	105/5
13	9	114/5
14	12	126/5
15	0	126/7
16	7	133/7
17	10	143/7
18	2	145/8
19	5	150/9
20	7	157/10

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